9 Simple Rules to Live by for Your Fantasy Draft
Circle of trust moment here. I was in three, primary fantasy football leagues last year… I finished 2nd in one league, 3rd in another, and dead-last in my home league. The one I finished last in… I was dreadful… awful… pathetic… the entire season. To make it worse, I didn’t follow any of my typical draft strategies to start the year and just circled the drain the remainder of it. This is my path to redemption in my home league.
With that moment of honesty out there, let me guide you through my 9 typical draft strategies and put together a few players within these categories for you to think about.
1. You can’t win the league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose it.
Depending on your pick, focus on the guys who are not seeing an offensive overhaul, whether that’s a new coaching staff, offensive line, or a new QB (unless it’s an upgrade), and on players not coming off major injury. Well, gee, that seems obvious, right? It might seem like it but it’s not. Look at a few of the guys who fall in those categories below. Of course, talent and value at the pick always need to be considered but this is about minimizing risk where possible.
Out of those 5… who are really the ones to avoid? I’m using “avoid” very loosely… look, these guys are 1st round picks, obviously, but they do have some pause for concern when looking at their overall situation.
Christian McCaffrey and Najee Harris are the two I am most uneasy about. Let me be clear… I am NOT saying those guys can’t have incredible seasons. What I am saying though, is that the major injury and the complete QB overhaul is too big of a question mark for me to take those guys with my early 1st round pick.
Cook and Jefferson still have relative offensive continuity by keeping the same QB and OL while changing out coaching staffs and Henry was able to make a small return at the end of the year to give me enough faith, he’ll be back to form this season. That’s enough stabilization for me to be comfortable with those guys should they land at my position.
2. Offensive opportunity, offseason upgrades, and proven success matter early.
One of the biggest topics every single season is which player is going to be the breakout star. Last year it was Cooper Kupp, whose 2021 ADP landed him in the 4th or 5th round as WR19. Kupp was a consistent producer in LA but really took that leap with a major upgrade in QB via Matt Stafford. Who are the guys that fall into that range who may be on a similar trajectory?
| Avg. Ranking | Running Back | Wide Receiver |
| 11 | Javonte Williams | A.J. Brown |
| 12 | Alvin Kamara | Tee Higgins |
| 13 | Saquon Barkley | Michael Pittman Jr. |
| 14 | Leonard Fournette | Jaylen Waddle |
| 15 | Cam Akers | DJ Moore |
| 16 | James Conner | Diontae Johnson |
| 17 | Ezekiel Elliott | Terry McLaurin |
| 18 | David Montgomery | Mike Williams |
| 19 | Breece Hall | DK Metcalf |
| 20 | Eli Mitchell | Courtland Sutton |
For starters, there are some easy ones and some borderline options that I will cross off the list for a variety of reasons. Kamara (legal uncertainty), Akers (injury recovery), Elliott (declining production/no Tyron Smith), Montgomery (declining opportunity), Johnson (QB downgrade), Moore (offensive continuity), McLaurin (QB downgrade), Metcalf (QB downgrade) get me started.
The RB side
We can debate around those drop-offs all we want and I’m aware of Cam Akers being touted as a sleeper but… let me say this, I have no interest in my RB1 or RB2 (depending on your strategy) being fresh off an Achilles tear.
That leaves us with Javonte, Saquon, Lenny, Conner, Breece, and Eli for RBs and Brown, Higgins, Pittman, Waddle, Williams, and Sutton. Lenny needs to transform into his 3rd iteration and be Lipo-Lenny given how he came into camp, Conner I would expect to have a significant TD regression, and Eli Mitchell plays in an offense where they exclusively ride the hot hand, and they now have a QB who can run. Out of the 10 from each position, sign me up for Javonte, Saquon, or Breece depending on draft spot for RB.
On the WR side
Waddle is really the only one I have questions about, only because of the Tyreek addition this offseason, but Sutton represents the highest upside to me by adding Russell Wilson followed by Pittman as he will be the primary (only?) target for Matt Ryan.
Again, the emphasis here is finding guys with key roles in their offenses, preferably with good QBs, in those early rounds that you can rely on for CONSISTENT production and high upside.
3. Quarterbacks should be drafted in middle-late rounds.
I feel strongly about this one, but it’s hardly a proven theory. Josh Allen can single-handedly win you weeks. He also represents an early pick where you can otherwise add solid production at positions with significantly less depth.
Would you rather take a player like Josh Allen as your QB1 in the 3rd round? Or snag a guy like Travis Etienne or Amon-Ra St. Brown while holding off to take Dak Prescott or Tom Brady in a middle round? Sign me up for a solid RB2 and WR2 all day over the QB1. Don’t mistake my point here though… I have no interest in being in the streaming business on a week in-week out basis because the rest of my league snagged QBs while I held out for Ryan Tannehill. It’s still important to get a top 6-8 QB in the draft.
5 guys I like a little further down range this year:
| Avg. QB Ranking | Player |
| 6 | Joe Burrow |
| 7 | Jalen Hurts |
| 11 | Russell Wilson |
| 14 | Derek Carr |
| 15 | Kirk Cousins |
4. Finding the right sleepers.
The $1M question every year. Sleeper picks are CRITICAL and, more often than not, finding the right sleepers helps you win and/or compete at the top of your league. However, gambling in early rounds on unproven sleeper picks can be damning (see: Calvin Ridley 2021). What are the keys toward finding the right ‘type’ of sleeper players? I look for 3 key areas:
- Offensive upside (similar to step 1 in the 1st round)
- QB play
- Vacated opportunities from the previous year.
Below are 4 players ranked lower than 25 at their position who possess sleeper attributes.
| Avg. Pos Ranking | Player |
| RB33 | Rhamondre Stevenson |
| RB41 | Dameon Pierce |
| WR33 | JuJu Smith-Schuster |
| WR43 | Allen Lazard |
Let’s start with the running backs.
James White just retired, and we know Belichick’s pension for dinking and dunking to his backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson represents the better hands of the New England running back duo, alongside Damien Harris. He also has far better yards after contact and agility traits. His role should increase significantly after finishing 2021 strong, particularly when you look at the Patriots history of utilizing their backs all over the field where his versatility is a differentiator. Tack that onto this being Mac Jones 2nd year where he has a little more experience under his belt and the Patriots consistently solid offensive line, I love the potential Stevenson brings to 2022.
Next, we have Dameon Pierce. His sleeper status resides almost entirely in the category of offensive upside.
All of Dameon Pierce’s touches Preseason Week 4. pic.twitter.com/B5lXWG5MA6
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) August 26, 2022
Specifically, they have no upside in their offense so he will be leaned on heavily. Go watch the preseason games he’s played in so far. Few players have been better in their opportunities than Pierce at this point. He was a standout at Florida and brings bell cow potential in an offense that desperately needs one. Rex Burkhead was Houston’s leading rusher last year at 427 yards and he finished at RB55. Seriously. Rex Burkhead. Opportunity awaits.
Onto the wide receivers
We’ll start with Mr. Tik-Tok himself… JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu finds himself in a Kansas City offense that is absolutely elite in utilizing the slot position. With Tyreek Hill taking his talents to South Beach, KC has vacated targets galore waiting for the right two hands. It was only 2 years ago that JuJu finished T10 in fantasy points for WRs and he’s dealt with injuries and a geriatric QB since then. JuJu doesn’t have the top end speed Hill has (no one does) but he does have the shiftiness to create opportunities in the middle of the field. Elite QB play, vacated targets, and past success… all those combine for a high upside sleeper.
“He’s been our dirty work guy for most of his career here. Now he’s getting an opportunity to be a #1. I’m not worried at all about him stepping into that role.”
AARON rODGERS ON aLLEN lAZARD
No Davante Adams or MVS means there are a ton of vacated targets available in Green Bay this year. With mostly young guys remaining on this roster and Aaron Rodgers fresh off his 4th MVP season, it’s only natural to expect he will lean on his lone, trusted veteran who he has been quoted as saying “He’s been our dirty work guy for most of his career here. Now he’s getting an opportunity to be a #1. I’m not worried at all about him stepping into that role.” If shroomed up Aaron isn’t worried about Allen Lazard, then neither am I. And that’s just like, my opinion, man.
5. Know your league’s rules and point systems going into the draft.
This seems like an incredibly obvious one going into the draft but PPR, 0.5 PPR, and standard league all have very different strategies and orders to be utilized during a draft. If you don’t know the structure of your league, you can’t formulate the best strategy going into the draft. Crack a beer, take a shot, and read up on the points system before opening the draft lobby. It should be a simple read-through that can save you considerable heartbreak down the road.
6. Use the draft board and cheat sheet to monitor future picks.
In most of the main fantasy apps like Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS Sports, they have a draft board tool in-app. If you are doing an in-person draft, I assume you are physically putting your picks onto a board as well. Use this tool to monitor other teams in your league. Most of the time each position has a color designation associated with it. If you see one of your targets is coming up next round and it’s a RB but one of your league-mates has drafted 2 WRs and a TE with their first 3 picks… don’t be afraid to take the RB in the round ahead just in case this person may be targeting your preferred player at that position.
If you don’t have a draft board, use a cheat sheet. Again, most of these major sites have pre-ranked cheat sheets for overall players as well as rankings by position. You can use those tools as a guide to project future pick options you may have. If you’re in a 10-team league and picking toward the middle, you know you have at least 9 spots in between picks. Look down your list of overall players by 9-10 spots to give yourself an idea of potential guys going in between draft spots as well as to check who may be available in that following round.
That leads us to our next tip…
7. Take guys you want to take at the round you feel comfortable with.
I find myself oftentimes simply tracking the best player available scroll rather than focusing on who I want to build my team around. These strategies and ranking systems are just opinions and ideas on how to be successful. What really matters is are you getting the right players at spots you are comfortable with drafting them at?
That’s it. If it were just a matter of grabbing guys based on their ADP, then you could just as easily let the computer pick your team.
8. Utilize the late rounds for home runs and handcuffs.
These are your picks that will most likely be dropped and streamed early in the season if they aren’t panning out. Utilize those final couple of rounds to try to find guys who might be stash aways for later games. Maybe someone coming off the PUP, or potential home run rookies. If you’re in a pretty competitive league, you may even need deep roster handcuff options should injuries occur to any of your top guys.
A couple of examples of late round handcuffs for often-injured guys are Alexander Mattison (RB42 | ADP 120) and Darrel Williams (RB61 | ADP 209). Fun fact: In 5 games that Dalvin Cook has missed over the last 2 years, Mattison averaged 24 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game. That presents a VERY safe floor for a guy who has missed at least a few games every season of his career.
Williams, on the other hand, now sits behind James Conner in Arizona. Conner had a massive resurgence last season with 15+ TDs but, let’s be honest, he’s had an injury-plagued career thus far and an offensive step back is likely. Williams not only finished as RB20 last season in Kansas City in a backup role, but he also represents a better pass catcher for Arizona’s offense. Plenty to love about his potential in Arizona this season with Kyler clearly trying to take less hits and leaning on his RBs more.
My favorite home run deep sleeper this year
is also in a bit of a handcuff situation… D’Ernest Johnson (RB70 | ADP 231) of the Cleveland Browns. Kareem Hunt (in a contract year) has already requested a trade. The Browns shut it down, but I have no doubt, options are still being explored. Even so, both Chubb and Hunt tend to miss games and Johnson was spectacular last year. In spot starts he averaged almost 23 PPR points per game. Unlike the two above, Johnson doesn’t offer much in terms of floor at this stage, but he certainly represents high upside potential later in the season. Definitely a guy worth the gamble in a late round spot.
9. Pay attention to the clock.
This is a great way to end our list of draft strategies… in its simplest form… don’t forget there is a clock on your picks. Queue your players up, keep your Wi-Fi connected, and pay attention. No one wants to be drafting with autopick person.
And that does it. 9 rules to live by when planning and executing the draft.
Oh, and 1 more thing… don’t come in last place in your league. That guy is the worst.
-RYAN
